Wednesday, September 12, 2007

LHH - HCL at 0.6 ! The chance to buy LHH

be safe but fully participate if the share price will become bullish again..

Nicholas Portocarrero is actually selling part of his shares in HCL which brought down the share price for HCL to an incredible low 0.5. An absolute minus record in relation to prices of 3.4 $L/share three months ago or even >10 six months ago.

But think about this. Is HCL really only worth 0.5 $L/share? There is WSE 4.0 coming and first non SL investors are already using WIC…The ongoing company reviews will also end soon which will bring stability into the market and economy in SL start to grow again.

The new financial reporting options in WSE 4.0 are really great and let us compare some key figures like NTA and P/E-Ratio between the listed companies. Also LEM would like to have a comparing statistical option…;-) . Anyway, LEM thinks that WSE has chosen a good and pragmatic way to handle the company financials. It is an illusion to think that RL accounting practices can be applied within SL as the average stock exchange user is surely not a professional book keeper and not willing to hire one, not for SL salaries…But if the financials are not done in a coherent matter they are useless. Better to use a simple system but which is understood by everybody.

But let’s come back to LHH and do a calculation together.

The spot price for HCL is actually 0.6 $L .

With a spot for HCL = 0.6 the barrier would be 1.5 $L /share.

In the last six months the highest share price for HCL was >10 $L /share. How high is the probability that the barrier will be reached within the next six months? And what will be the highest value HCL will reach over the same period? Will it be 1 or 5 or 10 $L/share or even more? Imagine how volatile the market can be.

We did a vote on our blog about whether HCL will outperform during the next six months. 40% said yes it will, 40% no and 20% didn’t know… This was before WSE 4.0 was announced.

If the barrier is not reached we calculate the average HCL over the whole six months and you will get back your investment in relation to it. If this average price would be 1.2 then an increase of 100% occurred and you will get 2 $L back on your investment on 1 share in LHH. If the barrier is reached and the highest value for HCL will reach 6 $L this would be an increase of 1000% and you will also get 1000% back so 10 $L.

Go and try to achieve such a performance by your own trading..

The IPO still goes two days. We probably will ask WSE to extend the period till the next reporting for HCL is done which should be soon.. But you better go in now and don’t wait before it’s too late..

If you have questions then IM me please

Greetz
Casper Trebuchet
LEM, CEO

House of derivatives (LFB, LWI, LHH)
http://lemurinvest.blogspot.com

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