Friday, January 4, 2008

WSE - update - trading halt and consequences

We all saw that WSE halted trading today till WSE 4.0 system is in place which should occur within the next 30 days.

These 30 days are a long time. However, LEM trusts that we will get in exchange a new multifunctional trading platform which opens new markets and will bring the market place to a new exceptional level. We hope that WSE 4.0 will be coupled with a straight forward oriented communication politicy which outlines the new strategy and explain about the next steps which will be taken.

The trading halt of WSE has some impacts on LEM and some of the derivatives which we would like to outline to you.

LEM: Trading is integrated part of our activities and we have 5 million $L in assets on WSE- Logically our earnings will be hurt also as other companies may rethink their dividend strategy. On the positive part, however, we think that WSE will come back on its premises and pay a dividend in February for both HCL and HCB. In consequence there is a risk that our monthly dividend will be lower than 0.045 $L/share as it was in the last 6 months but will resume than again once WSE 4.0 will be in place. Our NTA is still standing at 3.8 $L/share which makes our shares undervalued with latest prices of 1.6 $L/share. We will use the trading halt to explore new investment possibilities (latest share price for LEM = 1.62 $L/share)

LWI. A company resolution was running which had a deadline scheduled for 7th January 08. Before trading halt 100% of the votes went for option a) – the prolongation of LWI (see last note on our blog about LWI). Also reflecting only 3% of all possible votes we will go for this option as soon as WSE is opening again. LEM thinks that we can defend this position as the resolution run already for more than 10 days which left enough time for all investors to vote, also for those which were in holidays over Christmas and New Year. In conclusion LWI gets a prolongation till 18th July 2008 and we will request a SPO for max. 500’000 shares at an initial price of 1 $L from WSE. We are very positive about the future development of LWI and its underlying shares. (latest share price for LWI= 1.71 $L/share)

LFB: Not really affected. However, it would if HCL pays a decent dividend in February which would have some positive impacts on the basket (latest price for LFB = 8.63 $L/share

LHH: The same can be said about LHH. This high score derivative will surely profit from a rebound of WSE and HCL. However, you also have to note that it only runs till 15th March. If HCL would climb up to new heights LHH would too, to be seen. LHH was latest traded at 3.44. Buy back is set at 3.67 $L/share

LEM hopes that these information are useful for you. Please feel free to contact us if you have questions, by IM or by e-mail: casper.trebuchet@gmail.com

Greetz and happy waiting

Casper Trebuchet

LEM, CEO
House of derivatives (LFB, LWI, LHH)

http://lemurinvest.blogspot.com

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